This N.F.L. season is coming to be defined by numbers of all sorts. Positive Covid-19 tests around the league are forcing league execs to slide around games from week-to-week, changing the traditional lineup to odd hours.
Case(s) in point: the Tuesday night (7 p.m. Eastern) clash between the 4-0 Buffalo Bills and 3-0 Tennessee Titans was rescheduled from this Sunday after more positive cases were found among the Titans. And a game between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos was delayed from Sunday to Monday, and then was pushed off indefinitely.
Around the league, as Bill Pennington writes, “Through four weeks of the 2020 season, the average combined score of a game is 51.3 points, an increase of 16 percent over the same period a year ago and a roughly 20 percent increase in the average score of games since 2000.”
Oddsmakers expect Sunday’s late game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks to be the day’s barnburner. But before then, a handful of teams will see if they can get the number one in the win column, as the Falcons (0-4) face the Panthers at home, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (0-4) get the Giants in Dallas, and the Texans (0-4) greet the Jaguars in Houston.
Broncos-Patriots has been delayed indefinitely.
The N.F.L. has indefinitely postponed Monday’s game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, the latest reshuffling of the league’s schedule to accommodate the rash of positive tests for the coronavirus.
The league had already pushed back the game from Sunday to Monday after Stephon Gilmore, the team’s star defensive back, tested positive. The team returned to practice Saturday, but another presumptive positive test Sunday forced the league to act before the Broncos left Denver for Foxborough, Mass.
The league has not said when or if the game will be made up. Because this week will now serve as the bye week for both teams, there are no other openings on their schedule unless other games are moved, or the league adds an additional week to the season for makeup games. The Patriots were originally scheduled for a bye in Week 6, and the Broncos had a bye in Week 8. Read the full story here.
From 0-1 to 3-1.
Proving that an 0-1 start isn’t so bad, the Colts and the Browns have both followed up their opening-week disappointment with three consecutive wins, each of which came in convincing fashion. Indianapolis is powered by its defense and running game — and quarterback Philip Rivers is fitting in well as he climbs the career touchdown list — while Cleveland has finally found its offensive mojo, with Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and the rest of the team clicking in the way everyone thought they would last season.
So what happens when the Colts’ defense tries to slow down the Browns’ offense? The answer might give a solid indication of which of these teams is a real contender and which one is just beating up on lesser competition.
Complicating matters for Indianapolis is linebacker Darius Leonard being questionable with a groin injury. He wasn’t able to practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and if he were to miss the game that would open up the middle of the field for the Browns.
Las Vegas thinks these games will be boring.
The Ravens and Chiefs are both predicted to win their games (against Cincinnati and Las Vegas, respectively) by 13 or more points. The Cowboys are predicted to beat the Giants by at least 9.5. So are these games going to be snoozers? You shouldn’t count on that.
For Baltimore, scoring on Cincinnati’s defense should be easy — really easy — thanks to the Bengals being weakest against the run. But Cincinnati has looked reborn on offense thanks to No. 1 over all draft pick Joe Burrow, and last week running back Joe Mixon hit his stride with a monster game. Expecting them to win on the road would be silly, especially since they’re likely to allow 200 or more rushing yards, but Burrow’s adjustment to the N.F.L. has been so smooth that he should make the game exciting even if he loses in convincing fashion.
The Chiefs are huge favorites, which might be a bad thing considering how little they seem to concentrate against lesser competition. Add in Las Vegas having an offense that can score in a hurry and this game could easily go sideways, forcing Patrick Mahomes to pull off one of his epic comebacks.
As for the Giants … being 9.5-point underdogs is probably accurate and expecting that game to be anywhere near close would be overly optimistic. But hey, Dak Prescott has thrown for 450, 472 and 502 yards in his last three games, so maybe he goes for 530 in this one.
How many points will be scored on Sunday Night Football?
The Seahawks are averaging 35.5 points a game and the Vikings are averaging 26.5. Both teams’ defenses allow more than 400 yards and more than 27 points a game. Las Vegas is predicting this to be the week’s highest scoring game, with an over/under of 57, and that honestly feels low based on the strengths and limitations of both teams.
Seattle is powered by Russell Wilson, who tied Peyton Manning’s record of 16 touchdown passes through his team’s first four games. He has a pair of elite wide receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson has proved solid at running back. Minnesota can do everything on offense, with Kirk Cousins being able to choose between running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson on every play.
Did we mention that Seattle has several significant injuries on defense, including star safety Jamal Adams who is expected to be out for this game?
The most points scored in a Sunday prime time game was the 98 put up by the San Diego Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 8, 1985 — the Chargers won, 54-44 — but the highest-scoring game in the current Sunday Night Football format came in New England’s 43-40 win over Kansas City on Oct. 14, 2018.
Overly hyped matchups tend to disappoint, but the potential is certainly there for this game to challenge those totals.
The waiting game.
In addition to the indefinite delay of Denver’s Week 5 game against New England, Tennessee, had their game against Buffalo delayed until Tuesday, after several more Titans tested positive during the week,.
In an acknowledgment that the Titans are not yet in the clear, the N.F.L. rescheduled Buffalo’s Week 6 game, which was originally scheduled for Thursday of next week, but said it would go back to Thursday if their Tuesday game against the Titawns cannot be played.
Thus far a fairly small number of teams have been affected by the issues in Tennessee. But with the Titans’ bye already burned, and the bye weeks of the Patriots, the Broncos and the Steelers burned early as well, any flexibility in the schedule is drying up quickly.